Regime change in Venezuela will look nothing like Middle East’s cases

USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)

​There’s all this talk about how Venezuela will turn into another Vietnam, or into the protracted and endless religious conflicts in the Middle East. Those advancing the notion fall into one or a combination of the following categories: 1) stakeholders, i.e. they’re invested in Chavismo and its loss of power would be detrimental; 2) they discovered Venezuela last week and haven’t got the slightest clue about its history; 3) they hold lifelong vitriolic positions against the U.S.; 4) ideologically speaking they stand in the extremes of the political spectrum; 5) they couldn't care less about human, civil and political rights, democracy and rule of law.

Venezuela is a country that has not seen armed conflict at a national level since the very beginnings of the 20th century. In Venezuela all gods are equal, that is it has never had conflicts of any kind caused by religion. While Chavismo carved its international reputation as a movement that would look after the country's disenfranchised, the fact is that under its rule the poor and the dispossessed have multiplied exponentially, therefore Chavismo cannot be described as a socialist movement, or ideology. It is a criminal organisation formed by a confederation / coalition of criminal gangs with varying economic interests.

How such a divergent group of criminals is going to “battle an invading force” remains a mythical and moot argument, for none of those spreading fear about impending Middle-eastern type of conflicts speak for all. A bondholder that wants to see returns in full does not speak for a narco-general. None of those commenting about it in the media can credibly say their opinions represent Pranes, as the bosses that run Venezuela’s prisons and Tren de Aragua type of criminal organisations are known. Views of narcoguerrilla groups, both home grown and from Colombia, aren’t represented either. Enchufados, boliburgueses, bolichicos, and “bankers and entrepreneurs” that have been aligned with Chavismo purely on transactional reasons and for self enrichment will never, ever, take personal risks to defend other groups in the coalition and its leadership, and certainly will not do anything to endanger their ill gotten wealth. Chavistas, like Nicolas Maduro, Cilia Flores, Diosdado Cabello or the “moderate” Rodriguez siblings do not have the pull to mount half a coherent response to a hypothetical invasion.

Neither of them has ever had the traction and admiration that Hugo Chavez had. And it is worth recalling that Chavez once ordered battalions to the Colombian border due to capture in Caracas of FARC-leader Rodrigo Granda. He wanted to go to war with Colombia, but his troops never made it to the border because taxi drivers were protesting and blocked Autopista Regional del Centro, the main highway from Caracas and Maracay military garrisons. In light of such ineptitude, how can anyone entertain the notion that Venezuela’s army is capable of becoming the Viet Cong?

Before Venezuela was discovered by some of those commenting on the issue, there were episodes -like the month-long battle for control in El Rodeo prison- where prisons were no go areas for law enforcement! Entire parts of Caracas, like Cota 905, La Vega and Petare, have also been mostly under criminal gangs’ control rather than police forces. Hugo Chavez thought it was better to enlist Pranes and get their allegiance by offering them control of prisons. Same thing happened with Colombian narcoterrorist cartels that came to establish very profitable partnerships with the highest echelons of Venezuela’s army.

What will happen in reality, if Donald Trump’s pressure campaign manages to force Maduro out, is a massive party followed by inaction. Venezuelans are going to find very difficult to adapt to Chavismo no longer being in power. Filling the void and the mess created will be a herculean task, because there isn’t another criminal organisation in wait and much of the opposition is just Chavismo in disguise. Opportunists will creep back, as will those who have become golden thanks to the “revolution”. The thing about governing a country, in normal circumstances, is that millions of people are needed. A vision, a mission and strict adherence to democratic rule of law will have to be shared in order to undo 26 years of reckless lawlessness. 

But war? That’s not going to happen. The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) should just drop anchor in Colombian or Trinidadian territorial waters and send an invitation to Maduro & co to come for coffee and a quick chat. That’ll be the end of it.

---